Phil Predicts

February 2, 2026

Greetings from the potential future,

Today is a monumental day, as you all know.  It is a day that people around the world pause in silence, focused on one of the most powerful icons in modern history. No, not Cristiano Ronoldo.

Punxsutawney Phil, a humble groundhog, after some deep deliberation, (literally) will emerge from his sanctuary and predict the end of winter.  It is a meaningful moment for people everywhere, even in places closer to the equator where this prediction simply means changing SPF.

According to history, (which is not confirmable due to redactions)  Phil has been determining the change of season for 139 years. History does not indicate how the human race determined the end of winter previously, but one thing to note was that the life expectancy of humans in 1887 was 45 years. (I am currently 50% older than that) Don’t tell me that’s a coincidence.

We have come to rely on this prognosticating pig-whistle to give us hope as to the spring thaw.  All manner of decisions are connected to this. Planning vacations, gardens, lotto number choices, clothing purchases, marriage proposals.  Sure, we could probably come up with some complicated meteorological models, maybe somehow apply artificial intelligence, or even just look at the calendar from last year and guess, but none of those things are as compelling, and satisfying, as large rodent.

I imagine that some of you may ask, “How is it this groundhog is still alive after 139 years?” To which I would respond, “I don’t understand your question.”

Quick note about the reported shortage of groundhogs in New Jersey, (the state named after the cow).  Recently the local team of winter seers has had a hard time recruiting a qualified woodchuck to predict their seasons. I don’t want to start any conspiracy theories, but has anyone else wonder what those drones were doing in N.J. last year? Don’t tell me that’s a coincidence.

Given the huge success of Punxsutawney Phil in predicting the end of winter, (statistics aside), it baffles me why we don’t use him to predict other important issues. We spend so much of our lives wondering and worrying about what might happen next, when we could rely on a rat with a brain the size of a walnut.

For example, I know that many of you are stressed about whether men’s pants will be cuffed this year, it’s been on my mind too.  It would be a simple thing to ask Phil to come out of his hole long enough to cast a shadow on some gabardine trousers.

Or perhaps the midterm elections.  It would not be too complicated to take all of the politicians to Punxsutawney, PA for a quick once-over from Phil. While we are at it, he might take a sniff at the Supreme Court. Maybe look at the spread for this year’s Superbowl.

I realize this may be trivializing Phil’s nearly infallible powers, but why not put them to use in ways that benefit people in more significant ways than predicting the end of winter.  What about the other three seasons? Or maybe predict the end of The Simpsons.  Or climate change?

Sure, those are important but even more relevant are issues like this morning’s traffic for my commute.  Or whether I’ll get a tax refund this year.  Or what to watch on Netflix.  Or do I have enough gas in my car to get to work? 

We need Phil to make our lives better.  If we all knew what was going to happen in the important issues of our lives, there would be less conflict, less stress, more kindness.  I would be a little more relaxed if Phil could tell me if I’m going to like that salted caramel IPA before I ordered it.

This country has faith in Punxsutawney Phil.  In 139 years, there has never been an anti-Phil protest on February 2.  Don’t tell me that’s a coincidence. If you are looking for ways to heal divisiveness, you need look no further than a modest marmot with good intentions.

If you have read this far you may have noticed a sense of irony in this essay, sarcasm even.  I mean no disrespect to the sanctified history of Phil’s contribution to civilization. Even if I’m not quite a disciple of the rodent’s veracity, I respect the influence he has.

Of course, there’s no scientific basis for groundhogs to predict anything, it seems that all that matters is that people believe that he can.  And even if they don’t quite believe, they can at least pretend together for a moment.

Hope this finds you predicting good,

David

Copyright © 2026 David Smith